Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   1   30 - 4 13 - 3 30 - 4 13 - 3 +20.8      +10.4 2 +10.3 2 75.6 36 +19.9 4 +17.7 2
13 North Carolina 100.0%   2   26 - 7 14 - 2 26 - 7 14 - 2 +16.0      +7.9 14 +8.1 11 79.0 19 +17.3 9 +22.1 1
29 Clemson 64.2%   12   21 - 11 9 - 7 21 - 11 9 - 7 +12.3      +6.1 31 +6.2 28 64.5 257 +10.3 43 +10.7 5
33 Virginia Tech 68.0%   12   21 - 11 9 - 7 21 - 11 9 - 7 +11.9      +5.9 33 +6.0 31 65.4 242 +10.8 41 +9.4 6
38 Maryland 0.2%   19 - 14 7 - 9 19 - 14 7 - 9 +11.0      +5.5 39 +5.5 39 78.2 23 +8.1 66 +6.9 8
40 Florida St. 53.6%   12   21 - 10 11 - 5 21 - 10 11 - 5 +11.0      +5.3 43 +5.7 34 74.3 44 +11.0 40 +14.3 3
59 Miami (FL) 0.9%   19 - 14 6 - 10 19 - 14 6 - 10 +8.8      +4.5 56 +4.3 59 65.1 247 +7.7 70 +6.3 9
62 Boston College 34.2%   20 - 12 9 - 7 20 - 12 9 - 7 +8.4      +4.4 60 +3.9 67 62.4 299 +9.9 46 +11.7 4
89 North Carolina St. 0.0%   15 - 16 5 - 11 15 - 16 5 - 11 +5.0      +2.6 87 +2.4 91 69.2 146 +5.7 88 +4.5 10
95 Georgia Tech 0.0%   13 - 18 5 - 11 13 - 18 5 - 11 +4.7      +2.2 98 +2.5 89 73.4 56 +2.0 140 +3.4 11
97 Virginia 0.0%   16 - 15 7 - 9 16 - 15 7 - 9 +4.6      +2.2 99 +2.4 95 56.6 339 +6.2 80 +8.4 7
261 Wake Forest 0.0%   8 - 24 1 - 15 8 - 24 1 - 15 -6.0      -2.9 258 -3.0 260 76.0 32 -5.4 252 -6.4 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Duke 2.0 100.0
North Carolina 1.0 100.0
Clemson 4.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 4.0 100.0
Maryland 7.0 100.0
Florida St. 3.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 9.0 100.0
Boston College 4.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 10.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 10.0 100.0
Virginia 7.0 100.0
Wake Forest 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Duke 13 - 3 100.0
North Carolina 14 - 2 100.0
Clemson 9 - 7 100.0
Virginia Tech 9 - 7 100.0
Maryland 7 - 9 100.0
Florida St. 11 - 5 100.0
Miami (FL) 6 - 10 100.0
Boston College 9 - 7 100.0
North Carolina St. 5 - 11 100.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 11 100.0
Virginia 7 - 9 100.0
Wake Forest 1 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke
North Carolina 100.0% 100.0
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Florida St.
Miami (FL)
Boston College
North Carolina St.
Georgia Tech
Virginia
Wake Forest


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   54.8 40.1 4.8 0.3 0.0
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   13.6 31.6 33.4 20.1 1.3 0.0 100.0%
Clemson 64.2% 0.0% 64.2% 12   0.0 0.1 0.6 4.0 15.1 42.8 1.7 35.8 64.2%
Virginia Tech 68.0% 0.0% 68.0% 12   0.1 0.5 4.2 18.7 43.7 0.8 32.0 68.0%
Maryland 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.2%
Florida St. 53.6% 0.0% 53.6% 12   0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 12.4 35.2 1.4 46.4 53.6%
Miami (FL) 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7 0.2 99.1 0.9%
Boston College 34.2% 0.0% 34.2% 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 27.0 2.4 65.8 34.2%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.6% 79.5% 58.8% 40.1% 25.2% 15.4%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 87.7% 58.5% 30.3% 14.1% 6.4% 2.7%
Clemson 64.2% 37.5% 50.2% 23.7% 9.9% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 68.0% 32.7% 55.0% 24.7% 10.1% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Maryland 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 53.6% 31.6% 39.8% 17.0% 6.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 34.2% 27.2% 19.7% 6.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.2 2.0 18.3 42.4 31.2 6.0 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.7 7.5 36.0 41.3 14.2 1.0
2nd Round 99.9% 2.6 0.1 6.2 43.5 38.1 10.8 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 93.9% 1.7 6.1 35.3 46.2 11.4 0.9 0.1
Elite Eight 74.9% 1.0 25.1 53.4 20.2 1.3 0.1
Final Four 51.4% 0.6 48.6 45.9 5.4 0.1
Final Game 31.4% 0.3 68.6 30.3 1.0
Champion 18.3% 0.2 81.7 18.3